Parents Do These Things

Things Bayes Can't Do

The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data. Here we show that there are sets C for which such predictors exist, but none...

These are a few of my favorite things.

Which of these things is not like the others?

In etiologic research, the goal is to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on a disease outcome, which means the result that would be obtained in a large randomized trial with perfect adherence if exposure could be assigned without regard to the baseline characteristics of the study participants. But there is no reason to think that effects must be homogeneous across units in a randomized ...

Filoviruses: One of These Things is (not) Like the Other

The family Filoviridae contains several of the most deadly pathogens known to date and the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Western Africa, due to Ebola virus (EBOV) infection, highlights the need for active and broad research into filovirus pathogenesis. However, in comparison, the seven other known filovirus family members are significantly understudied. Many of these, including ...

Some Things Algorithms Cannot Do

A new, ‘behavioral’ theory of algorithms, intending to capture algorithms at their intended abstraction level, has been developed in this century in a series of papers by Y. Gurevich, A. Blass and others, motivated initially by the goal of establishing the ASM thesis. A viable theory of algorithms must have its limitative results, algorithms, however abstract, cannot do just anything. We establ...